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Colby’s Approach Part 2

September 2, 2010

In the last post I looked at Colby’s propensity to pull outside pitches and what effect it may have.  Another common criticism/complaint about his approach is the high number of strikeouts.  Clearly in a vacuum striking out less would be a good thing; however there is likely to be a trade-off with power.  In an effort to frame the argument I wanted to look at the relationship between striking out more/less and adding/subtracting power.   To that end I took 3 yrs of matched pairs (2007-2008, 2008-2009, 2009-2010) and ran a regression on the delta in strikeout percentage and the delta in ISO.  The results were that the two were very weakly (adjusted r squared of ~0.01) positively correlated (coefficient of 2.2 that was significant to a p of 0.01).  That basically means that in general adding 1% to a players strikeout rate added 2 pts of ISO.  Clearly this wasn’t a deep mathematical study, but I found the results to be fairly intuitive and somewhat interesting.  Colby himself has followed the general trend too as his strikeout rate went up by ~10% and his ISO went up ~70 pts.

Now is power everything?  Of course not.  However, I just wanted to point out that there are likely trade-offs to be made if you want him to cut down on his strikeouts.

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