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Series Preview Braves at Cards

April 26, 2010

The Cards, coming off of their first series loss of the year, return home to face a Braves team that is scuffling more than I would have expected before the season began.  The Braves are 8-10 and have a pythagorean record of 8-10 as well.  So how do the two teams stack up according to the pre-season projections.  First lineups, with the Cards first

Name wOBA DEF/150 RC/Game
Skip Schumaker 0.335 -5 0.586152
Ryan Ludwick 0.356 1 0.650075
Albert Pujols 0.431 5 0.925749
Matt Holliday 0.39 6.5 0.751876
Colby Rasmus 0.343 5.5 0.56356
Yadier Molina 0.329 8 0.499789
David Freese 0.34 0 0.523898
Brendan Ryan 0.31 7 0.415002
Pitcher 0.2 0 0.04807
Game Totals 0.187 4.964171

and the Braves

Name wOBA DEF/150 RC/Game
Melky Cabrera 0.33 3 0.56664
Martin Prado 0.351 -2 0.631089
Chipper Jones 0.377 -3 0.722701
Brian McCann 0.373 -3 0.689586
Troy Glaus 0.356 0 0.60987
Yunel Escobar 0.352 1 0.579506
Jason Heyward 0.345 5 0.540776
Nate McLouth 0.355 -4 0.564164
Pitcher 0.2 0 0.04807
Game Totals -0.02 4.952402

I diverged a little from CHONE for the Braves.  CHONE was a major outlier for Melky Cabrera, so I went with the next highest projection.  For Jason Heyward, I went above and beyond the projections and projected him similar to Rasmus’ pre-season projection.  Quibble if you like.

The Card’s pitchers

Starter Starter ERA IP/GS Bullpen ERA
Game 1 Kyle Lohse 4.18 5.33 3.7
Game 2 Chris Carpenter 3.1 7 3.7
Game 3 Jaime Garcia 4.45 5.66 3.7
Game 4 Adam Wainwright 3.53 7 3.7

and the Braves

Starter Starter ERA IP/GS Bullpen ERA
Game 1 Tim Hudson 3.95 6 3.25
Game 2 Derek Lowe 4.07 6 3.25
Game 3 Kenshin Kawakami 4.44 6.66 3.25
Game 4 Jair Jurrjens 3.77 6.33 3.25

Runs Allowed (combining pitching and defense) for the Cards

RA
Game 1 4.144058
Game 2 3.327826
Game 3 4.347754
Game 4 3.691353

and the Braves

RA
Game 1 4.059855
Game 2 4.146812
Game 3 4.509783
Game 4 3.950145

it appears that the teams are fairly even on the offensive side, but the Cards have an advantage in run prevention. It helps that the Cards have such a decided edge defensively.

and then finally the results of the sim

A split is most likely, but if someone is going to win the series, then it should be the Birds on the Bat.

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