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CHONE Projected Standings

February 5, 2010

CHONE projects that the Cardinals are on course to win big an a weak division.

NL Central Wins Losses
St. Louis Cardinals 91 71
Milwaukee Brewers 81 81
Cincinnati Reds 81 81
Chicago Cubs 79 83
Pittsburgh Pirates 74 88
Houston Astros 73 89

Sean’s comments

Thanks to resigning Matt Holliday, the St Louis Pujols should have a comfortable season in the NL Central. Most of the teams in that division don’t spend enough money to compete. Then there are the Cubs and Astros, who have spent on some real albatrosses. I like the young talent in Cincinnati, but they probably aren’t ready to challenge Prince Albert just yet.

Considering the current talent, and barring any moves on the part of the competition, it looks like a walk in the park. A lot could change. The Reds and Brewers have the prospects to make moves, if they’re competing I’d look for them to be in the thick of a blockbuster. The Cub’s farm system is also much improved, but they have so little in the way of payroll flexibility with so many commitments.

CAIRO’s projected standings are updated, too. For what it’s worth, the Cubs are the favorite for the wild card. I think people, myself included, have overlooked the Cubs a bit. Aramis Ramirez will be healthy again, Geovany Soto should bounce back, Alfonso Soriano can’t possibly be worse than he was in 2009 (can he?) and their rotation should be very good. Their bullpen looks a bit shaky to me. Still, they are returning much of the same talent that won 97 games just a couple of seasons ago.

NL Central W L RF RA Div WC StD W Std RF Std RA
STL 90.5 71.5 717 638 56.5 9.0 84-97 677-757 602-675
CHN 86.2 75.8 729 679 24.5 17.3 80-92 697-760 645-713
CIN 84.2 77.8 731 705 12.0 15.3 78-90 696-766 669-741
MIL 80.9 81.1 736 738 6.5 5.0 74-88 697-774 697-779
PIT 72.6 89.4 671 745 0.0 0.0 65-80 635-706 703-787
HOU 66.1 95.9 650 796 0.5 0.0 60-72 618-682 756-836

W: Average wins over 100 iterations
L: Average losses over 100 iterations
RF: Average runs for/scored over 100 iterations
RA: Average runs allowed over 100 iterations
Div: # of times team won division over 100 iterations
WC: # of times team won wild card over 100 iterations
Std W, RF, RA: W, RF and RA within one standard deviation in either direction

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