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PECOTA NL Central Standings

January 28, 2010

Season’s over, we win.

Little work has been done on the depth charts, I’m told. And there are some free agents to be had out there still. But for what it’s worth, here’s the NL Central.

W	L	RS	RA
89	73	802	724	St. Louis Cardinals
82	80	780	772	Cincinnati Reds
77	85	779	823	Chicago Cubs
75	87	766	829	Houston Astros
75	87	827	895	Milwaukee Brewers
70	92	754	873	Pittsburgh Pirates

Some of the other divisions look pretty strange to me – like the NL East, for instance, but this jives OK with my pathetically unsophisticated Win Talent WAR estimates OK enough. The only real shocker to me is the Brewers, who I think is a better team on paper than PECOTA does, apparently.

The ZiPS are out too. Here’s the ZiPS, wOBA-fied for hitters and FIP-ified for the pitchers:

Name wOBA
Pujols 0.456
Holliday 0.386
Ludwick 0.365
Schumaker 0.338
Craig 0.331
Molina 0.330
Mather 0.329
Freese 0.328
Rasmus 0.325
Gotay 0.323
Stavinoha 0.318
Lugo 0.315
Descalso 0.314
Jay 0.313
Ryan 0.311
Anderson 0.307
Robinson 0.305
Greene 0.274
LaRue 0.273

The return of the Thudwick! ZiPS isn’t as bullish on Freese as other projections. I’m going to pretend I didn’t even see these Brendan Ryan and Colby Rasmus projections.

Name IP HR BB K FIP
Wainwright 205.6 14 59 184 3.16
Smoltz 100.3 10 23 90 3.39
Miller 41.6 4 16 44 3.49
Carpenter 93.3 7 24 66 3.53
Reyes 38.3 3 18 32 3.96
Franklin 66.3 6 21 44 4.00
McClellan 70 6 28 53 4.00
Motte 64 8 28 67 4.04
Penny 151.6 16 50 90 4.37
Lohse 153 18 46 93 4.42
Hawksworth 63.6 7 25 43 4.46
Sanchez 56.3 6 29 47 4.46
Garcia 66.3 8 30 51 4.59
Lynn 118.6 14 55 77 4.83
Hill 93.3 11 54 76 4.84
Perez 67.3 10 29 53 4.85
Walters 87.3 13 37 64 4.94
Boggs 145 17 72 86 5.03
Jukich 129 18 56 82 5.04
MacLane 148.6 24 36 66 5.14
Zink 142.6 15 70 53 5.30
Ottavino 131.6 17 83 87 5.45
Samuel 52 6 52 50 5.78
Norrick 71 10 51 46 5.89

Cy Waino? The odd disinterest in Smoltz or any reliever that can miss bats is starting to concern me.  I’m sure Steve or I will have more on the projections now that we have PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE, Bill James and Marcels out. It won’t be long now until pitchers and catchers report.

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One Comment
  1. FlimtotheFlam permalink
    January 29, 2010 12:09 AM

    Did you notice that PECOTA has the Cardinals with the lowest Runs Against in baseball? That seems have for me to digest let alone no 90 win team outside of the AL East.

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