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Marcel and the Cardinals

January 12, 2010

Tango’s Marcel the Projections are out. You can download the set here. Marcel is the simplest of all projections, (as in it’s so easy a trained monkey could run them), but the system hangs in well with the big boys. Since Marcel is simple, I’ll keep this post simple.

Here’s the Cardinal hitters:

nameLast reliability wOBA
Pujols 0.87 0.423
Holliday 0.87 0.394
Ludwick 0.84 0.357
Freese 0.12 0.343
Schumaker 0.83 0.338
Molina 0.83 0.33
Rasmus 0.68 0.327
Ryan 0.75 0.322
Greene 0.33 0.314
Lugo 0.79 0.307
LaRue 0.61 0.286
  • That would be a down year for Albert by his own glorious standards, but bear in mind he leads all offensive players in Marcel-projected by wOBA by a big margin.
  • I’m loving that Holliday projection.
  • CHONE and Marcel diverge greatly on Colby Rasmus. CHONE projects a .340 wOBA, Bill James .330, and now Marcel is flinging poo at him.
  • On the other hand, Marcel likes David Freese, as does CHONE.

Here’s our pitchers:

nameLast reliability mIP ERA mHR mSO mBB mHBP
Carpenter 0.7 157 3.01 9 115 41 6
Wainwright 0.81 190 3.34 15 156 59 4
Penny 0.77 155 4.47 16 103 56 5
Lohse 0.78 138 4.24 15 91 43 4
Garcia 0.11 30 4.2 4 23 12 1
Franklin 0.61 63 3.71 6 44 24 2
McClellan 0.57 66 3.89 6 53 27 2
Motte 0.42 54 4.25 7 48 21 2
Miller 0.5 51 3.88 5 46 20 3
Reyes 0.48 50 3.87 4 40 22 2
Boggs 0.48 79 4.73 7 59 38 4
Hawksworth 0.31 45 3.5 4 32 17 1
Walters 0.15 37 4.74 5 31 15 1
  • It could be another Lincecum-Carpenter-Wainwright finish in the Cy Young balloting again.
  • I’m not sure what to make of Hawksworth’s low ERA projection, but if you calculate his FIP it comes out to 4.13.
  • Sign Kiko Calero! 55 IP, 3.60 ERA, 51 K.
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7 Comments
  1. azruavatar permalink
    January 12, 2010 9:27 PM

    That puts Holliday at or above 4.5 WAR for next year (assuming neutral defense).

    Marcel doesn’t incorporate any minor league stats (IIRC) so it’s going to be more negative on Rasmus than other projection systems. I’d love to see him bust out and put all the projections to shame.

    • azruavatar permalink
      January 12, 2010 9:28 PM

      And I take that back given that it’s projecting Freese. I need to revisit how Marcel deals with minor league players.

      • January 12, 2010 9:49 PM

        I’m not sure either. I think it just uses straight MLEs, but I don’t know.

    • stevesommer05 permalink
      January 12, 2010 10:20 PM

      I think you are correct in that it doesn’t include minor league stats. IIRC it uses league average for all players with no MLB experience, and would just heavily regress for someone with nominal MLB experience. I’ll do a little digging.

      • stevesommer05 permalink
        January 12, 2010 10:24 PM

        From the FAQ:

        “But, what about a player who’s never played MLB? Where’s his forecast?” That’s simple. His forecast is the league mean over 200 PA, 60 IP (starter) or 25 IP (reliever). If you want to know what the league mean is, just take the average of anyone forecast with a reliability of 0.00. So, Marcel’s official forecast for anyone coming over from Japan is that.”

  2. DCGreg permalink
    January 14, 2010 9:11 AM

    Erik, do the pitching projections assume guys like Boggs and Hawksworth are starters or relievers or a combination?

    • January 14, 2010 6:59 PM

      Tango says ”

      So, I’ll make that my rule of thumb: if at least one-third of your games is as a starter, you classify as a starter. Otherwise, you are a reliever. (This of course is based on the idea that you only want two buckets.)

      ***

      This only applies to the recent seasons. If I go back one more year, I get almost 50%.”

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