Skip to content

Simulating the Cards Plan B’s

December 13, 2009

With the Matt Holliday clock now ticking there has been a lot of talk about the plan B options, so I thought it would be a good time to bring out my WAR simulation (which I’ve expanded to include defense).

I looked at the following options that I’ve heard/read about at some time over the past couple of days [Quick update: as Dan at VEB points out this list is not exhaustive, and I’ll try to run at least some of the suggestions people make here or over there]

  • Holliday (hey I was curious) in left and David Freese at 3rd (MH)
  • Erik’s nightmare – AKA Miguel Tejeda at third and Allen Craig in Left (MT)
  • Mark Derosa at 3rd and Craig in Left (MD)
  • Freese at 3rd and an  Craig/Kelly Johnson platoon in LF (KJ/AC)

Here’s the CDF graph

The x axis is position player WAR and the y axis is probability.  For those that are not statistically inclined, the probability is the probability that the respective WAR would not be exceeded.  For example, the probability that the Holliday team won’t exceed the 2009 Phils is ~0.8.  More simply stated, there’s a 20% chance that (based on CHONE offensive and my defensive projections) a Cards team with Holliday would outperform the position player production of the 2009 Phils.

The MT line is under the MD line.

Clearly this exercise doesn’t factor in that money saved could be put towards pitching (I hope to add pitching to the sim this week).  That being said it’s fairly obvious (even without the sim) that Holliday>>these plan b options.  Also of note is that going young and rolling the dice on Johnson is likely better than the proven vet options.  We’ll see what pitching adds to the equation later this week.

Data: Offensive projections from CHONE, defensive projections mine (right sidebar) or CHONE for those with no MLB experience, 2009 data from fangraphs

  1. FlimtotheFlam permalink
    December 13, 2009 11:05 PM

    I am rooting for the Freese at 3B. Craig vs LHP and a RHP masher. I like KJ but I honestly want some one with bigger and splits vs RHP. I still personally would like us to roll the dice on Brian Giles. Johnny Damon wouldn’t be horrible either. Ryan Church would be another cheap option.

  2. Nick C permalink
    December 14, 2009 9:37 AM

    I think it is entirely possible that we will see a Felipe Lopez/David Freese combo at 3B and a Ryan Church/Allen Craig combo in left with F. Lopez playing some 2B as well.

  3. stevesommer05 permalink
    December 14, 2009 10:30 AM

    Yeah Church, KJ, Eric Hinske… I think all offer a good, fairly cheap platoon option in LF. I think I like KJ the best, but am not hung up on any of the 3.

  4. Nick C permalink
    December 14, 2009 11:06 AM

    Church, KJ and Hinske are the cheaper options.

    I could also see the Cards going with Damon or David DeJesus.

    I think a platoon in LF with any of these lefty bats and Craig would come fairly close to replicating Holliday’s production.

    With an upgrade at 3B, I think the team is better overall than if they sign Holliday. The problem as I see it is that Felipe Lopez is the only true 3B upgrade. While Beltre offers good defense, his offense, especially his OBP, is not good. Beltre is further hurt by the fact the Busch III is even more hostile to homeruns than Safeco. Outside of Lopez I think the only way to truly upgrade at 3B would be to trade. Unfortunately I don’t see anyone available in trade to help the team either.

  5. RunSup permalink
    December 16, 2009 9:26 PM

    Please try: Vladimir Guerrero in LF and Mark DeRosa at 3B.


Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: