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I need your input!

January 17, 2009

Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Sky had a great idea of putting together a community WAR project, which I volunteered to help participate in. It’s pretty cool- different team specific bloggers get input from their readers on how to enter the projections, and in the end we should have a pretty interesting projections, and we’ll all keep updating as the season goes on. CHONE, Marcel, ZiPS, et al crunch the numbers, but we fans who follow the team closely know some things the projections don’t, like who is expected to see an increase/decrease in their playing time, who is battling injury, etc. Now I know the blog is relatively new here and we’re still growing in readership, but those of you who read, I’d like to hear your input.

Here is the community spreadsheet as I entered it. What would you change? For example, we’re hearing a lot of positive press about Carpenter’s health out of Winter Warm Up.  Should I project more than 85 IP for Carp? Less? Leave it the same? Other things to consider is how much playing time will Chris Duncan or Colby Rasmus actually see…there is the matter of who will be the utility IF, outfielder playing time, etc.  You get the idea.

I’m not saying I’m going to make just any change, but if it’s something reasonable and we’re able to come to a consensus, great.

  1. poorcollegeguy permalink
    January 17, 2009 11:39 PM

    I’ve been looking into plate appearances per position. What I came up with was the following…
    c -675

    another thing is are we calculating pithers at bats? If we are they get about 385 pa’s and it pulls down the win total by almost 2 wins.

  2. somaticmarker permalink
    January 18, 2009 1:23 PM

    Just wondering if Barden might win the utility IF over Ryan in spring training. Ryan has had a good shot and through a combination of not playing well and bickering with TLR may have put himself in a hole.

  3. RunSupRun permalink
    January 18, 2009 10:17 PM

    Erik –
    Fun project. Thanks for the involvement.

    Good call by Poorcollegeguy with regard to pitchers’ at bats. Account for them in the DH section?

    It doesn’t look like you are going to fill in projections for the familiar stats like OBP and SLG. Could you either give a brief explanation or point to one for the other ratings columns? That would help some of us come up the learning curve.

    Some of the adjustments will become clearer deeper into spring training. Right now I’d say Rasmus gets more than 250 PA’s … closer to 400. Barton probably doesn’t get any PA’s unless its a September call up. Give Barton’s PA’s to Rasmus and Duncan.

    Freese is a player for a roster spot. You wouldn’t see Thurston AND Ryan AND Barden all active at the same time unless Greene or Kennedy are hurt. In fact only one could be active when they start the season if they carry 6 OF’ers. Likewise, I also don’t think you see Mather AND Duncan AND Freese on the same active roster unless injury.

    But who really knows until they break camp. We’d be arguing minutia with a bunch of unknowns. Filling in the pitcher PA’s would be the major update for your pre-ST submittal.

  4. poorcollegeguy permalink
    January 19, 2009 10:39 AM

    I have been using wOBA so far however if pitchers hitting stats are going to be accounted for I may have to use ops and slg, unless i can find some more numbers in the next hour or so. This is from baseball reference…

    Cards 2008
    pinch hitters

    Cards 2007
    pinch hitters

    Cards 2006
    pinch hitters

    Cards 3 yr avg.
    pinch hitters

  5. poorcollegeguy permalink
    January 19, 2009 10:52 AM

    While its not the true formula for calculating wOBA, sky used “(1.75*OBP + SLG) / 3” to convert OBP and SLG into wOBA.

    pitchers wOBA-.204
    pinch hitters wOBA-.322

  6. January 19, 2009 3:41 PM

    Thanks PCG, that helps a lot. Sky said we don’t need to factor in pitchers hitting, I guess it’s already factored in the sheet.

  7. poorcollegeguy permalink
    January 19, 2009 5:14 PM

    I thought it was factored into the baseline win total for AL and NL. Just wanted to be sure.

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