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Kawakami to Atlanta

January 10, 2009

I’ve been advocating patience, but honestly I’m a little bummed out about this one. NPB Tracker is saying it is believed to be a 3 yr. /$24 M deal. His park/league neutral CHONE projection calls for FIP’s of 3.99, 4.06 and 4.09  over the next three seasons. CHONE believes he’ll only reach 122 innings, and then 110 and 98 from there, which is pretty pessimistic. If that’s what he does, then the contract is a moderate bargain, but if he throws 160+ innings per year, it’s a great buy on Atlanta’s part. Kawakami would be worth 2.5 to nearly 3 wins annually in that case.

Unless Kawakami really wanted to go to Atlanta for some reason, or there’s some sort of injury concern I don’t know about, I believe Mo missed the boat. Barring a trade, he’s now left with free agent pitchers who are either out of his price range or too mediocre to really matter.

  1. cards13 permalink
    January 10, 2009 10:18 PM

    I’m more disappointed in missing out on Saito for what the Red Sox are apparently paying him.

  2. January 10, 2009 11:31 PM

    I wonder he needs to do in order to reach all his incentives, I hadn’t even looked at the deal until now. The Sox are apparently hoping at least one of those low-cost, high risk, high reward gambles pays off. What a weird offseason they have had.

  3. easy permalink
    January 11, 2009 10:09 AM

    My problem with all of this is that, other than stripping bare all the lower branches of the loogy fruit tree, I have no idea what the FO’s off season strategy is. We seem to bounce all over the place with identifying what our priorities are and, when we finally do target a player, we are quite literally a day late and a dollar short. If we simply don’t have the cash to work with I’m fine with that. But why then would we kick off the off season with a four year contract for a pitcher who had four straight losing seasons before this last one? Obviously we don’t know what other things we may be exploring under the radar but it seems to me that we do have some guys who could fill needs on other teams both on the roster and amongst our B and C+ prospects. Maybe we’re talking to those teams but we haven’t heard about it. I fear that we may be holding onto a limited war chest of “dry powder” for that one guy, Sheets or Lowe I suppose, and that we will, as usual, come in a close second.

  4. nmstar permalink
    January 11, 2009 11:55 AM

    Unless Ben Sheets is signed, the 2009 version of the Cardinals isn’t much better (assuming better closer performances from Young Pitcher and/or Motte)than last year’s team and that wasn’t good enough.

  5. cards13 permalink
    January 11, 2009 2:22 PM

    As easy says, it’s all very confusing. It most certainly appears the FO is afraid to make a trade unless they are the clear winners. There has to be some risk for some reward.

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