Reason 1,137,116 to Put Down Your Pitchforks

From the comments section at a blog post at The Hardball Times:

If he (Carpenter) had been on the ballots in place of Vazquez and Haren, and in the exact same placements as Vazquez and Haren, Carpenter would only have received four more points – and that would still have been two fewer than Lincecum.

In other words, if Law or Carroll put Carpenter on their ballots in either the two or three spot, Lincecum still wins. Carroll’s and Law’s votes, in the end, didn’t keep Carpenter from winning the Cy.

Not sure if passing on that piece of information will help Keith Law from getting stalked by angry Cardinal fans, but I’m just throwing it out there.

Another hat tip to Tango.

Ranking Free Agents by WAR

Nothing like a little hot stove stoking to get the "Carpenter, Wainwright were robbed" taste out of your mouth. Ken Davidoff give us his rankings and predictions on where the players will go and for how much they will sign for.

Relevant Cardinal info:

1. Matt Holliday, OF

The most impactful player available. Prediction: Cardinals, seven years, $120 million

7. Adrian Beltre, 3B

Poor offensive numbers distract from his excellent defense. Prediction: Cardinals, one year, $6 million

Davidoff can’t be expected to follow every beat of course, so we know it’ll be Holliday and Freese playing third, or a cheapy fix (Xavier Nady) in LF and a more established player like Adrian Beltre, I would presume at 3B.

Tip o’ cap to Tango.

On the Cy

Keith Law is awesome. He made a 2nd place vote for Javier Vazquez in the Cy Young, defended his decision with referring to sabermetrics (and innings pitched) and then ripped the fanbase, tweeting* " Do the Cardinals sell a pacifier with the team logo on it?" I like it.

*you can’t type the word tweeting and still feel cool.

The thing is, Law’s ballot is defensible, if you subscribe to these new-fangled sabermetrics, and more and more people are. I know, they are ruining the game.

Back in my day, we used to calculate a pitcher’s ERA with an abacus! And back in my day, we didn’t have safety standards for toys. We got rusty nails and big bags of broken glass! And that’s the way it was, and we liked it! We loved it! Win-Loss record and throwing underhanded! Those were the days, by-gum!

Look, folks. The nerd-leaven is slowly leavening the lump of the BBWAA. They’re penetrating the bureaucracy! Get used to it. Zack Greinke had 16 wins. Lincecum had 15. And yet both were far and away the best pitchers in their respective leagues, and it really wasn’t even that close.

Pitching Runs Created:

Lincecum – 137
Carpenter – 119
Wainwright – 126
Vazquez – 120
Haren – 121

FanGraphs‘ Wins Above Replacement, which uses FIP to determine runs above replacement:

Lincecum – 8.2
Carpenter – 5.6
Wainwright – 5.7
Vazquez – 6.6 (hello, Keith Law)
Haren – 6.1

StatCorner’s WAR, which uses tRA, which is FIP on steroids):

Lincecum – 8.3
Carpenter – 6.6
Wainwright – 5.7
Vazquez – 5.8
Haren – 6.3

One dude who was really, really, really good no matter how you slice it; and several pitchers who were very good, but had little separating them, no matter what advanced stats you look at. There is no holy grail stat, but you can see some harmony here.

This vote looks like progress, but the fact that there was still so much separating 2-3 from 4-5 when there was so little separating their performance tells me there’s still more progress to be made in the evil subterfuge of the basement dwellers into the MSM.

Whiny baby Cardinal fans and grumpy old man Cardinal fans, click on the links, educate yourself. You’re just making yourself look stupid attacking things you haven’t taken the time to understand.

Edit: Sorry, I’m a cranky cuss today. I am not saying there is a “wrong” vote per se’…well maybe I am. I just have grown a little weary of some of the anti-stat jabbing. Ignorance in this age of baseball information is forgivable, but making fun of things you don’t understand is just lame. But in the grand scheme of life, whoo-pa-dee-doo.

2010 UZR Projections and the Cardinals

Hiatus over. I’ll be writing about the Cardinals here when I’m feeling the urge, and in pithy fashion.

Jeff Zimmerman at Beyond the Boxscore put together 2010 UZR projections for the spreadsheet mafia. Sweeeet. For those of you who like to see the math, you can go here to learn more.  We’ll just stick with the projections for our favorite local sports team.

Albert roolz. He is projected to be the best defensive 1B, well ahead of the incumbent Gold Glover Adrian Gonzalez, for what it’s worth. Colby and his Boog-ness are near the top of the leader-boards for their respective positions as well.

I’m not quite ready to take the over on Skip’s projection quite yet, but he did show a lot of improvement over the course of the season.

Now here is a look at some of the free agents and speculated trade targets of the Cardinals for their vacancies in the left corners.

Take that, Adam Dunn bandwagon. There’s no DH in the NL just in case any of you have forgot. Over the past two seasons Dunn has hit 78 homers, hit 205 RBI’s and drawn 238 walks, and yet has completely sabotaged his value as a player by being a terrible outfielder. His WAR those two seasons, including base-running: 2.2. OVER TWO SEASONS. 2.2. -13 runs actually seems optimistic for Dunn, considering his recent disastrous play, and that’s saying something.

Jermaine Dye….blah. Brad Hawpe. Blarf. I can’t believe anyone would say Bay is a more complete player than Holliday, but it’s being said by some uninformed folk out there who should know better.

I wouldn’t mind seeing what Dayton Moore would want for David DeJesus, and then seeing Moz Def couldn’t sign Figgins at a reasonable enough rate. That wouldn’t provide any ballyhooed “Albert Protection”, but those are two solid defenders who can get on base at a decent clip. There are more ways to win than just slugging.

Josh Hamilton from a Biblical Perspective

Warning: “Religion” post. Not for everyone.

There’s something to talk about: Dennys Reyes

Sorry other blog. I’ve neglected you. 

The Cardinals threw a bunch of crud on the wall, and none of it stuck. So they decided to sign a real brand name, bona fide LOOGY in Dennys Reyes.  Well alright. The deal is apparently for 2 years and $3M. 

The past three seasons Reyes has posted tRA+’s of 158, 106 and 107. You read the first one right. In his first season as a Twin, he was lights out. He was 2 WAR in 2006, then .4 and .6 last season, and projects to be .6 WAR again, worth a fair market value of $3M. So it’s a decent enough bargain.

Like many a LOOGY, he’s a sinker/slider pitcher. According to his Pitch F/X card at Kalk’s, his sinker comes in at 91 MPH while his slider is 85MPH. Naturally, he throws the slider to lefties nearly 50% of the time. His O-Swing% is 30.9% and batters make contact with those pitches just 40.6% of the time. He’s held LHB in check last year, to the tune of a  .202/.250/.257 line. 

TLR now has his precious two veteran lefties and everyone’s happy. Well, everyone but Royce Ring, Charlie Manning and Ian Ostlund. They’ll be disgruntled and in camp until Mexico (and Reyes) eventually gets eliminated from the WBC.

CHONE says 83 wins

Good for 2nd place. Well, that stinks. I still think they can do better than that projection, but it’s gonna take a healthy Chris Carpenter and a lot of other breaks to hit 90 wins.

 Beware of the…Reds? Astros in the basement!

Memo to Pineiro: You stink, get over it.

So Joel Pineiro is all in a huff about not being included in Puerto Rico’s three man rotation for the WBC. Instead of sucking it up and pitching out of the bullpen for his homeland, he is taking his ball and going home. Adding to the drama, Jose Oquendo is PR’s manager.

“I was very disappointed, very heartbroken. I felt disrespected,” Pineiro said prior to this morning’s workout at Roger Dean Stadium. “Everybody knows that there have been only two pitchers in Puerto Rico the past 8-10 years who have been consistent starters, Javier Vazquez and myself. To hear that from [Oquendo], it was such a setback. I’m very disappointed. I can’t believe I’m talking to you guys about this.”

Whoa,buddy. First of all, I’m not sure there is such a thing as a consistent starter from Puerto Rico considering who made the team in your stead. Secondly, the only thing consistent about  the last 5 years of Joel Pineiro is that he’s been one of the worst starters in all of baseball.  

tRA*

Sanchez: 2008 4.52, 2007 4.95.

Snell: 08 5.58, 07 4.37. 

Pineiro: 08 5.24, 07 4.86, 06 6.14

As I said, I’m not sure there is such a thing as a consistent SP from Puerto Rico, but I’d rather take my chances with Jonathan Sanchez and Ian Snell, too.

I’ve been defending the front office

The Cardinals have stuck with Rick Ankiel through thick and through thin, but now they’re taking him to arbitration?

According to Fangraphs, Ankiel’s win values the past two seasons have been $4.3 and $8.7M.  His CHONE projection calls for 1.4 WAR, worth $6.2M on the free agent market, something Ankiel is only a year away from.

The names in his similarity scores are a lot of boom then bust types, do the Cardinals believe that is what will become of Ankiel? Maybe I’m being a homer, but I don’t really think Ankiel is going to flame out as fast as say, Jason Lane. Hey, it’s not like they are using the extra payroll on a free agent. He’s going to be a bargain no matter how it shakes out, but they should’ve just paid the man and spared the hurt feelings.

PECOTA Projected Standings

80-82.

3rd place. Bleh. I think they’ll do better than that, but …. bleh.